Are Sri Lanka out of the semi-final race now?
Sri Lanka‘s huge loss means their net run-rate of -0.275 has plummeted to -0.653 (from -0.275 before the game). Given that they can only finish on a maximum of eight points now, they need several results (and the margins in them) to go in their favour to stand any chance of qualifying.
It’s still possible that they finish on eight points with six other teams – all competing for two spots – but they will be competing on NRR with Australia, New Zealand, Afghanistan and Pakistan. If one of those teams moves up to ten points, it gets even tougher for Sri Lanka.
For an idea of how far their NRR has fallen, even if they score 300 and win their last two matches by 100 runs each, their NRR will only end up on -0.023. Qualification is still mathematically possible, but realistically, it’s near-impossible.
How does this result affect the other teams in the race?
This result helps all the teams that could end on ten points, as there’s now one fewer team in the mix.
However, it could still be crowded on the points table, as up to five teams could end with ten points – India and South Africa have crossed that mark – and fight for two slots. If Pakistan win their last two, they will finish on ten, as will New Zealand if they lose to Pakistan and beat Sri Lanka.
Australia will fancy their chances of going past ten points, but if they win only one of their final three games, they will be stuck there, as will Afghanistan with two wins, and Netherlands with three.
Australia are still best placed, given that they are already on eight points with three games still to play, and also given that their NRR is an excellent 0.970.
Predicting who is likely to take the fourth spot is much tougher. New Zealand are still in front given that they need only two wins to finish on 12 points, but they have lost three on the trot, and if they lose to Pakistan on Saturday then there will be little to choose between them.
Afghanistan can finish on 12, too, if they win their last three, but two of their remaining games are against the in-form Australia and South Africa. Plus, there is the small matter of their NRR, which is currently at -0.718. A big win against Netherlands on Friday will make things healthier for them.
S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats